Pre-election Ratings

Presidential Elections 2010: the last pre-election ratings conducted December 12-26, 2009

Pursuant to Part 13, Article 64 of the currently effective Law on the Presidential Elections, the ban on publishing the results of public opinion polls regarding candidates for the office of president up to 15 days prior to the elections in the mass media (of any form of ownership) is currently in effect.

On December 29, 2009, Iryna Bekeshkina, Scientific Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and senior academician at the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Oleksandr Vyshnyak, Director of the Ukrainian Sociology Service, publicized the results of last pre-election ratings.

A total of 2,010 respondents were surveyed according to a nationwide random sample based on the standard representative criteria: sex, age, education and place and type of residence. The margin of error of the sample was no higher than 2.3%.

Results of the survey:

- If the presidential elections Ukraine were held in the last week of December 2009, 33.6% of respondents surveyed that plan to vote said they would support Viktor Yanukovych, while 19.2% would support Yulia Tymoshenko.

By the percentage of votes the two leading candidates are followed by Serhiy Tihipko (9.23%), Arseniy Yatsenyuk (6.1%), Viktor Yushchenko (3.7%), Petro Symonenko (3.4%), Volodymyr Lytvyn (2.6%), Oleh Tyahnybok (1.6%), Inna Bohoslovska and Anatoliy Hrytsenko (1.3%). The rest of the candidates will garner no more than 1%. 5.3% of the people say they will vote “against all”, while 11.1% have not made up their minds as to whom they will vote for.

- There were no significant deviations in the survey in terms of support for candidates in the first round of the elections based on age with the exception of Petro Symonenko whom 8.2% of the voters in the highest age bracket (over 55) are considerably more inclined to vote for (1.2% are youth up to age 30 and 1.5% are in the 30-54 age bracket. Depending on the level of education significant deviations were only observed in the support of Petro Symonenko for whom voters with incomplete middle education are ready to vote (8.0%) and support of Serhiy Tihipko, who on the contrary enjoys the greatest support of voters with a middle specialized education (12.1%) and a higher education (12.3%).

- Yulia Tymoshenko has greater support of women (21.6%) than men (16.1%) in the first round, while Viktor Yanukovych has greater support of men (35.6% versus 32.0%). As for the remaining candidates, significant deviations in the support of men and women were not observed.

- The largest deviations in the support of candidates a regionally dependent. In the western region Yulia Tymoshenko has the greatest support (22.0%). She is followed by Viktor Yushchenko (13.9%), Viktor Yanukovych (11.1%) and Arseniy Yatsenyuk (10.8%). 4.3% of the people would vote against all. The largest percentage of voters that are still undecided was registered in the western region at 20.7%. In the central and northeastern regions Yulia Tymoshenko leads with 34.2%. She is followed by Viktor Yanukovych (18.4%), Serhiy Tihipko (10.0%), Arseniy Yatsenyuk (6.5%), against all (7.6%) and undecided (7.6%). In the southern and northeastern regions Viktor Yanukovych is in the lead with 45.1% of the votes. He is followed by Serhiy Tihipko (11.9%), Yulia Tymoshenko (9.3%), against all (7.5%) and undecided (11.7%). In the Donbas region and Crimea Viktor Yanukovych has a comfortable lead with 62.6% of the votes. He is followed by Serhiy Tihipko (8.1%), Yulia Tymoshenko (5.8%), Petro Symonenko (5.3%), against all (2.5%) and undecided (7.2%).

- The ideas and proposals of candidates and confidence that the candidate envisions realistic solutions to pulling Ukraine out of the crisis and economic prosperity of the country are among the main motivating factors in voting for a particular candidate (36% and 25%, respectively). Among the other motivating factors are the attractiveness of the candidate’s personality (24%), conviction that the candidate has the best strategy for the country’s future growth (23%), conviction that the candidate has the best team of professionals (20%) and the candidate’s concern for his voters (19%).

- The main motivation for voting for Viktor Yanukovych is his ideas and proposals (36%), conviction that the candidate has the best team of professionals (33%) and sees a way out of the economic crisis (31%). Yulia Tymoshenko is first and foremost attractive to her voters as a personality (40%), for her ideas and proposals (35%) and her vision of a solution to the economic crisis (35%). The main attraction for voters in Serhiy Tihipko is his vision of a solution to the economic crisis (39%), his attractiveness as a personality (34%) and his strategy for the country’s development (30%). The main motivating factors for supporters of Arseniy Yatsenyuk are his vision of a solution to the economic crisis (28%), his attractiveness as a personality (23%) and his ideas and proposals (26%). Supporters of Viktor Yushchenko share his ideas and proposals (40%), feel he has the best strategy for the country’s development (28%) and a certain part of them feel he represents “the least of all evils” compared to the rival candidates. (17%).

- If Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych advanced to the second round in the last week of December 2009, 42.9% of the people would have voted for Viktor Yanukovych and 27.4% for Yulia Tymoshenko. A significant percentage of voters (18.7%) would vote against both candidates and 9.2% would be undecided (1.8% of those that would have voted in the first round would not vote in the second round).

- Significant deviations in the support of Viktor Yanukovych or Yulia Tymoshenko in voting in the second round in terms of sex or age were not observed. Meanwhile, significant deviations were observed in terms of regional deviations. In the western region of the country Yulia Tymoshenko would garner 40.3% of the votes, Viktor Yanukovych – 14.5%, 26.8% of the voters would vote against both candidates and another 16.6% were undecided. In the central and northeastern regions Yulia Tymoshenko is also ahead with 42.3% of the votes, Viktor Yanukovych – 23.4%, another 21.7% would vote against both candidates and 9.4% are undecided. In the southern and southeastern regions these numbers are quite the contrary. Viktor Yanukovych would lead with 60.3%, Yulia Tymoshenko – 16.6%, 15.4% -- against both and 6.9% -- undecided. In the Donbas region and Crimea Viktor Yanukovych – 76.5%, Yulia Tymoshenko – 6.1%, against both – 10.9% and 5.3% -- undecided.

- The main factors that motivate citizens to vote in the elections are: a feeling of public obligation (44%), fear that somebody may exploit their vote (34%) and the desire to support one of the candidates (24%).

- The main reasons that people refuse to cast their vote in the elections: the absence of a candidate that would be worth voting for (34% of those that wish to abstain from voting), lack of faith that the elections will be fair (22%), conviction that the elections will not change anything as the president in reality does not decide on anything (17%) and indifference to the elections overall as life does not depend on them (24%).

Released by the Press Service of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation

Pre-election Ratings of Political Forces 

*) - Question in KIIS Servey: Which party or bloc will you vote for if you vote during possible early parliamentary election?

**) - Question in Razumkov Centre Servey: Which party or bloc will you vote for if you vote during early parliamentary election on September 30, 2007?

***) - Question in DIF Servey: If you vote during the 2007 Election, which party (bloc) do you intend to vote for?